Associated Press reports that Ebbsfleet United, a fifth-tier UK football club, has just been purchased by 20,000 fans. Each fan bought into the team for $72, and has a say in who plays, who is traded, who is picked up, and the day-to-day running of the club. The goal is to move the team into the next conference up, League Two.
Every armchair quarterback must take a look at this. Fans have always been very vocal about the performance of their teams, and here’s an opportunity to put your money where your mouth is. However, I wonder about the ability of the group to work effectively.
A group is more likely to come up with a good decision if everyone is independent; independence being the freedom of influence from others. However, in a group like this, there will be a powerful set of influencers - the more vocal and passionate fans will be able to influence the less committed people. Since this will be a social, and probably quite public, venture, the lack of independence will play heavily on the decisions of the group. Fans will influence other fans, leading to pressure on the individual to conform to the group.
There is a tendency for individuals to go against their better judgment for the sake of conformity to the group (Solomon Asch, Social Psychology). Groups put strong pressure on individuals to conform, especially among homogeneous groups. However, since the pool of fans spans 70 countries instead of just a local group of 20,000 in Kent, there is a certain amount of diversity here which bodes well for independent input.
Can the group make a better decisions than single expert coach or manager? While group wisdom consistently outperforms average individuals, expert individuals can be equal to or better than the group. I wonder how much of an expert a 9th place, fifth tier club can have. While the group can probably perform quite well at this level, I have doubts that this would work at the Premier League level.
This will be a very interesting experiment with potential ramifications for the future of sport. Keep an eye on this one.
For further reading, check out The Wisdom of Crowds by James Surowiecki.
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